India to Overtake China as Main Driver of Agricultural DemandIndia to Overtake China as Main Driver of Agricultural Demand Summary: A report by the OECD and FAO predicts that India will replace China as the primary driver of growth in global agricultural demand over the coming decade. This increase will primarily be driven by rising populations and dietary shifts in middle- and low-income countries. Key Points: * India and Southeast Asia will contribute 31% of the projected increase in demand. * India’s agricultural production is expected to grow significantly in crops, livestock, and fisheries. * China’s share of additional consumption is expected to decline, while Sub-Saharan Africa will contribute significantly to demand growth. * Global agricultural production is projected to grow at 1.1% annually, with yield improvements playing a key role. * Agricultural trade is anticipated to increase by 1% per year, with prices expected to exhibit a downward trend in the short and medium term. Source: * efeagro.com Additional Details from Metadata: * Publication Date: July 4, 2024 * Meta Tags: * mainEntityOfPage: https://schema.org/WebPage * dateModified: 2024-07-04T13:50:00.0000000 * isFamilyFriendly: True * Canonical URL: https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9641595/india-will-displace-china-as-the-main-driver-of-growth-in-agricultural-demand/
According to the OECD and FAO, India is set to overtake China as the main driver of growth in global agricultural demand over the next decade. They estimate that global agricultural consumption will grow by 1.1%, with nearly 94% of this increase attributable to middle- and low-income countries, mainly due to demographic expansion and changes in diets.
India and Southeast Asia will account for 31% of this increase in demand. India’s crop production, livestock and fisheries are estimated to grow by 20.2%, 41% and 16% respectively by 2033. China will remain the largest agricultural market, but its share of additional consumption of primary sector products is expected to decline significantly, from 28% in the past decade to 12% by 2033.
Sub-Saharan Africa will also play a major role, contributing 18% to the increase in demand, driven by an annual population growth of 2.40% between 2024 and 2033. Globally, primary sector production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.1% over the next decade. Crops, livestock and fisheries are expected to increase by 1%, 1.3% and 1.1% respectively, mainly due to yield improvements.
Agricultural trade is expected to grow by 1% annually, keeping the relative weight of exports constant. Despite price increases between 2020 and 2022, a downward trend in prices is expected in the short and medium term, influenced by continued productivity improvements. However, the report’s authors warn that this trend could be influenced by other factors, such as transport costs, currency prices, trade policies and the integration of local markets with international trade.
Source: efeagro.com
