The relevant question in the NHL free-agent frenzy isn’t “Will teams overpay to land the top available free agents?” It’s “by how much?”
More mistakes are made on July 1 than on every other day of the NHL calendar combined.
While free agency provides an opportunity for teams to add talent to their lineup without acquisition cost, it’s also a day of open bids, long-term commitments and intoxicating competitiveness. The result, oftentimes, is a feeling of regret for NHL hockey operations departments.
The best players on the open market, the name brands for the marquee, are those most likely to stimulate season ticket purchases. These are players that fill the building, excite a fan base and make headlines, even in nontraditional hockey markets. When you factor in those risks that are inherent in a hard cap system with fully guaranteed player contracts, however, it’s sometimes the imperfect generic brand players who are ultimately the better fit on great teams.
As we look ahead to free agency, The Athletic wanted to spotlight 10 of the top available name-brand unrestricted free agents and produce a list of more affordable alternative options for teams to consider this offseason.
These more affordable “value buy” options are also lower quality and less desirable across the board, but that’s sort of the point.
Note: All contract projections are sourced from Evolving-Hockey.
Star-level top-line winger
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Jake Guentzel (7 years, $9.7 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Jonathan Marchessault (3 years, $6.9 million)
Jake Guentzel is an elite two-way winger, one of the NHL’s most frequently overlooked superstars.
He’s a big game player, as we’ve seen repeatedly in the Stanley Cup playoffs. He’s a top-line caliber rate scorer, a brilliant playmaker and a bona fide play driver.
And if there were any questions about whether he could do it away from Sidney Crosby, he’s answered them. After he was acquired by the Carolina Hurricanes at the trade deadline this past spring and removed from Crosby’s wing, Guentzel still produced at a 100-point pace between the regular season and the playoffs.
The 30-year-old is the top unrestricted free agent on the market and he should be. Given the way cap pressures work and serve to deflate the salaries of elite-level talent, he’s not even a buyer-beware candidate in free agency. Sure, there’s always risk in signing a 30-year-old player to a max-term contract. Any team lucky enough to sign Guentzel, however, is likely to have a relatively efficient contract on its hands, given his all-around ability and star-level impact.
That said, it feels like there’s no hype whatsoever around Jonathan Marchessault in the lead-up to the opening of the free-agent market and there really should be. Marchessault, 34, is four years older than Guentzel and isn’t as well-rounded. Guentzel is the superior playmaker and the superior defensively player.
From a goal scoring perspective, however, Marchessault has produced five-on-five offense at a top-30 rate over the past three seasons and regularly carries a sky-high shot rate. His work rate is off the charts, too, and despite his stature, he can play a heavy game and elevate his form late in the year — as he proved during the 2023 playoffs when he won the Conn Smythe.
Marchessault is coming off a career year in which he scored 40 goals, and despite his age, he shows absolutely no signs of slowing down. The gap between him and Guentzel just isn’t as large as perception would indicate, and yet Evolving-Hockey projects there to be a roughly $50 million difference in total compensation between the two on their next contract.
Teams that miss out on Guentzel shouldn’t hesitate to pivot to Marchessault. He can be very nearly as impactful, at an even more palatable price.
Top-six two-way center
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Elias Lindholm (7 years, $8 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Alex Wennberg (3 years, $4.4 million)
Elias Lindholm is an excellent all-around center, but a contract in the seven-year, $8 million AAV range would be extremely risky.
Nobody is doubting his enormous value as a defensive workhorse. He’s an elite faceoff winner, a penalty-killing stud and can match up against top players because of his smart positioning and disruptive stickwork. The problem is that Lindholm’s offensive results have declined hard the last two years, making him unlikely to produce at a rate commensurate with the first-line center price tag he’s going to command.
Lindholm scored 64 points in his first season away from Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau in 2022-23 and fell to 44 points in 75 games this season. This wasn’t just a brutal stretch of luck, either; Lindholm’s offensive play-driving metrics cratered in 2023-24.
Graphic via HockeyViz
Alex Wennberg fits the mold of a classic shutdown middle-six center. Lindholm can still excel as a 2C, whereas Wennberg is best suited as a 3C, but the gap between them as players isn’t as wide as the discrepancy between their respective contracts will be.
Wennberg was tasked with very difficult matchups against the opposition’s best players in Seattle, averaging nearly 19 minutes per game across three seasons with the Kraken. The 6-foot-2 Swede delivered impressive results in that daunting role, posting above-average defensive numbers for suppressing shots and scoring chances against, in addition to logging a huge penalty-killing role. A vanilla pass-first offensive player, he was only one point back of Lindholm in five-on-five scoring this season.
Lindholm is miles better in the faceoff circle, more valuable on the power play and could bounce back offensively in the right situation, but Wennberg’s even-strength impact at both ends of the ice was very comparable in 2023-24.
Second-line winger
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Tyler Toffoli (3 years, $6.1 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): David Perron (1 year, $2.4 million)
Tyler Toffoli is one of the smartest offensive wingers in the sport.
What he might lack in foot speed, Toffoli makes up for with clever finishing, sneaky passing ability and a still extant ability to win battles and help his team control play five-on-five. He’s also a genuine power-play weapon, adept at the net front and has a long history of solid playoff performances, even if it didn’t go well for him in the postseason as a rental player with the Winnipeg Jets this spring.
In terms of production, Toffoli is a high-end second-line rate scorer five-on-five. And although he’s getting into his mid-30s now, is still a solid bet, even on a high value unrestricted free agent contract, to add punch to a good team’s top six.
David Perron is four years older and is unlikely to command as significant a contract or nearly as much term as Toffoli will. Where Toffoli is a high-end second-line rate scorer, Perron is a more standard second-line point producer, although he absolutely can still produce offense at a legitimate top-six level.
Like Toffoli, Perron’s foot speed has diminished with age. Perron, however, is still an absolute beast beneath the hashmarks and plays a small area game down low as well as anyone in the league.
Because of the 35-plus contract rules, the market may hesitate to give Perron the sort of term he probably should warrant coming off a near 50-point season with the Detroit Red Wings. What rival suitors may see as a concern, a discerning buyer should view as an opportunity. Perron still has the intelligence and heavy game to help good teams win games in a second-line role.
Heavy, complementary scoring winger
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Jake DeBrusk (5 years, $5.9 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Michael Amadio (4 years, $3.3 million)
Jake DeBrusk is an excellent complementary scoring winger.
There’s some heaviness and straight-line predictability to his game when he’s on, he’s a legitimate first-line rate goal scorer and, used in the right way, he can add the sort of snarl and offensive pop that all teams need to win games in the NHL.
His occasional bouts of inconsistency are well-documented, although he’s put together three consecutive productive seasons. Those months where his work rate flagged earlier on in his career have largely disappeared too. He’ll be a very interesting add for somebody on the open market.
Michael Amadio, however, shouldn’t be slept on as a glue guy who can produce points in a variety of roles up and down the lineup. A right-handed shooter who has very quietly produced goals at a top-line rate over the past three seasons with the Vegas Golden Knights, Amadio is a natural center with good size who can play either wing position or in the middle of the lineup.
Amadio is not at the same level as DeBrusk in terms of his one-shot scoring ability or straight-line speed, but he’s got a winning track record and is a solid all-around, understated player who brings a lot of similar attributes. Most importantly, he projects to earn half as much on his next contract.
Versatile middle-six forward
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Adam Henrique (3 years, $4.8 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Danton Heinen (4 years, $3.6 million)
Adam Henrique is a very handy middle-six complementary scorer. The 34-year-old veteran can play either wing or center, is a clinical finisher around the net, kills penalties and is a reliable bet to contribute 20-25 goals.
Teams are often looking to fill their middle-six forward spots without breaking the bank, though, and that’s where Danton Heinen is intriguing. Recent history would suggest his next deal may clock in far cheaper than what Evolving-Hockey projects — his last three contracts have all been one-year deals, none of them higher than a $1.1 million AAV.
Heinen can contribute secondary offense (17 goals and 36 points in 74 games), is reliable defensively, kills penalties and slid up and down Boston’s top nine because of how well he can adapt his game to hang with more skilled linemates. He doesn’t drive play on his own but has strong forechecking chops and high enough offensive IQ to excel as the third wheel on a line.
Heinen’s overall point totals aren’t that high because he’s limited on the power play, but he’s produced 1.96 points per hour at five-on-five over the last three seasons. That’s a bona fide top-six clip that slots in the same neighborhood as the likes of Henrique, Tyler Bertuzzi, Bryan Rust and Trevor Moore among others.
Third-line scoring winger
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Vladimir Tarasenko (3 years, $5.5 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Jason Zucker (3 years, $3.2 million)
Vladimir Tarasenko is a far cry from the elite player he was in his prime, but he can still add offensive sizzle to a club’s middle six.
The 32-year-old right winger has scored 50-55 points in each of the last two years. He’s got a wicked release on his shot, is capable of elevating a team’s second unit power-play and has won two Stanley Cups. The red flag on Tarasenko is that he’s a defensive drag. It doesn’t always look that way by the eye test, but his defensive metrics are very alarming over the last three seasons or so.
Jason Zucker won’t match Tarasenko’s pure shooting, offensive talent or point production. Zucker is a far more well-rounded play-driver, however, and can pack a strong third-line punch at a significantly more affordable price. He’s a very quick skater, constantly disrupts plays/wins battles and can mesh with skilled linemates (he scored 27 goals in 2022-23 riding shotgun with Evgeni Malkin).
Relentless bottom-six winger
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Stefan Noesen (3 years, $3.3 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Kiefer Sherwood (2 years, $1.8 million)
A high-energy, big-bodied forward with good hands around the net, Stefan Noesen emerged as a quality bottom-six piece for the Hurricanes. Noesen is a tenacious worker, adds a heavy presence and has scored 13-14 goals and 36-37 points in back-to-back seasons. He thrives in the dirty areas of the offensive zone and emerged as a productive net-front power-play producer.
Many teams can’t afford to shell out a $3.3 million AAV, however, for a player who filled a fourth-line role with power-play duties. At almost half the cap hit, Kiefer Sherwood could check many of those same boxes minus the net-front power-play specialist skill set.
Sherwood is a ball of energy, a relentless forechecker and scored 10 goals and 27 points in 68 games on Nashville’s fourth line. All but one of those points came at five-on-five, which is impressive. Sherwood’s line delivered sparkling underlying numbers during the regular season, with head coach Andrew Brunette trusting them to match up against Vancouver’s top line during some points of the playoffs.
Physical second-pair defender
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Nikita Zadorov (3 years, $4 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Brenden Dillon (2 years, $3 million)
Nikita Zadorov is going to command way more than his $4 million AAV, three-year contract projection indicates. Vancouver reportedly went as high as offering a $5 million AAV, according to TSN’s Darren Dreger, which wasn’t enough because the Canucks announced they won’t be re-signing him. There’s a high probability that the term on his next deal will be closer to five or six years rather than three as well.
Zadorov is a unicorn with his 6-foot-6, 248-pound frame, thunderous hitting ability and smooth skating. Despite all of those physical gifts, Zadorov has never averaged 20 minutes per game or higher in any of his 10 NHL seasons because his reads and decision-making, both with and without the puck, can lead to loud mistakes from time to time.
Listed at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Brenden Dillon is an effective, affordable No. 4/5 defenseman for a fraction of the cost. The hard-nosed 33-year-old veteran offers throwback qualities with his physicality (ranked 12th in the NHL for hits this season) and willingness to stick up for teammates, while still providing fringe top-four value.
Dillon ranked No. 4 among Jets defensemen in ice time this season, averaging nearly 19 minutes per game. He generated strong defensive numbers in terms of suppressing shots and scoring chances while also eating the second-most PK minutes of all Jets defenders.
Defensive-minded second-pair puck mover
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Matt Roy (5 years, $6.1 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Alexandre Carrier (4 years, $4.4 million)
A slick skating hybrid shutdown defender, Matt Roy has been an underrated driver of the Los Angeles Kings’ suffocating defensive game over the past several seasons. Last year, as the Kings parked the bus with extreme conservatism, Roy’s defensive game hit a new level as he combined with Vladislav Gavrikov to form one of the league’s stingiest pairs.
Standing 6-foot-2, but known more for his positional play and two-way IQ than his physicality, Roy is second only to Chris Tanev among right-handed defensively oriented defenders poised to hit the open market on July 1. Given how difficult it is to identify good right-handed blueliners, Roy is in line to earn a massive raise on the $3.15 million AAV deal that he’s played on for the past three seasons.
Alexandre Carrier is also likely to be in demand, and for many of the same reasons. Carrier has become one of Nashville’s most trusted hybrid defensive defenders over the past few seasons and shares a number of stylistic similarities with Roy with one key exception. Whereas Roy is 6-foot-2, Carrier is listed at 5-foot-11.
Carrier plays bigger than his size and is likely to have a similar impact on his next team as Roy, but his height is going to make him a more budget-conscious option for teams on July 1.
Power-play specialist third pair defender
Name Brand Target (projected contract): Shayne Gostisbehere (3 years, $5.2 million)
Value Buy Target (projected contract): Justin Schultz (3 years, $3.2 million)
Shayne Gostisbehere is one of the most consistent and underrated point-producing defenders of the past decade.
Provided that he’s healthy, he’s likely to give his team 10 goals (or more) and 40 points (or more). He’ll need to be sheltered a bit at five-on-five and the defensive deficiencies are well-documented, but Gostisbehere can fill the net from the back end and run an effective power play.
Justin Schultz isn’t nearly as prolific, but he’s got the skill to run the power play, has a habit of elevating his game in the playoffs and has actually become somewhat steadier as a two-way defender over time. He’s a couple of years older than Gostisbehere, but the gap in the actual value that Gostisbehere and Schultz will provide to their next teams is almost certainly smaller than the expected gap in the valuation of their next contracts.
(Photos of David Perron and Jonathan Marchessault: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)
