Tom Carnduff, Joe Townsend and Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill preview the Euro 2024 knockout stages, pick their best bets, rate the tournament as a whole and give their verdict on England.
Football betting tips: best bets on Euro 2024
2pts Harry Kane wins the Golden Boot at odds of 15/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Jimmy “The Punt” Cantrill
1pt Kobbie Mainoo Young Player of the Tournament at 66/1 (BoyleSports, BetVictor)
Joe Townsend
0.5pt new Wout Weghorst wins the Golden Boot at 66/1 (Sky Bet, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Tom Carnduff
Sky Bet odds | Paddy power | Honestly
Euro 2024 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- England – 7/2
- Spain – 4/1
- Germany, France – 11/2
- Portugal – 6/1
- Netherlands – 12/1
- Italy, Austria – 16/1
- Switzerland, Belgium – 33/1
- Denmark, Turkey – 66/1
- Romania – 150/1
- Slovakia, Slovenia – 200/1
- Georgia – 250/1
Can England make the most of their ‘easy’ draw?
- Possible opponent in the quarterfinals: Switzerland/Italy
- Possible opponent in the semi-finals: Romania/Netherlands/Austria/Turkey
Joe Townsend: While it’s hard to get excited about England, it seems like their defensive performance in the group stages has been overlooked. Gareth Southgate’s men have conceded just one goal and allowed just 1.1 expected goals (xG).
There were signs from his substitutions against Slovenia that Southgate is ready to give the team the overhaul it needs, so I’m almost confident enough to say they’ll make the final, although an unpredictable Dutch team is the only country I’d be worried about. England have to face them.
Tom Carnduff: Yes. Even by their usual tournament luck standards, this is remarkable. If they don’t at least reach the final, Keir Starmer can drum up further public support after the expected Labour victory by personally sacking Southgate in his first duty as prime minister.
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill: In short, yes, and we may have Phil Foden’s wife to thank for that. The Manchester City midfielder flying home for the birth of his third child should force Southgate’s hand in choosing a better balanced team, allowing England to come alive in the knockout stages.
Who will win the European Championship?
Joe Townsend: Spain have obviously looked the most impressive, but if I had to pick just one team it would be that FRANCEThey do not suffer the same burden from England thanks to their success over the past 30 years and appear confident they can emerge in the knockout stages at the right time.
England still face questions over whether they can beat elite opposition, France know they cannot and will not be swayed by being on the tougher side of the draw. It is understandable that they are 11/2 after 7/2 pre-tournament, but it is tempting for such a proven team, especially with Kylian Mbappe back and ready to go.
Tom Carnduff: Errrr, England maybe, or France, or Holland, or Spain look pretty good. Basically it’s wide open. I’ll go for the Spain-England final and then take your pick.
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill: Honestly, no idea. It’s wide open.
Can a surprise package win the 2024 European Championship?
Joe Townsend: This tournament is complete chaos, thanks in part to the ridiculous third-place qualification system.
England were so unimpressive that it wouldn’t be a shock if they were knocked out early from the looks of it SWITZERLAND as a potential finalist and therefore a potential winner is really not beyond the realm of possibility. After being 80/1 pre-tournament, 40/1 still feels worth a point, which accounts for the lopsided draw.
Tom Carnduff: One can go far on the ‘easier side’ of the draw. Expect England or Netherlands to progress to the final – normality should resume despite that bizarre bracket.
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill: The open nature of the tournament really gives an outsider with a high budget a chance SWITZERLAND are the team for me. They have shown great versatility so far: attacking flair against Hungary, digging in against Scotland and a strong tactical performance to suppress Germany. No one will want to play against them.
Who is likely to cause a shock in the round of 16?
Joe Townsend: ROMANIA were really fun to watch this summer and will make life incredibly difficult for a Dutch team that has some great players but still seems to be trying to fix things. Taking them at 7/1 to win in 90 minutes or 4/1 to qualify is something to cheer about.
Tom Carnduff: In terms of chances, I don’t fear anyone. You could get an ‘outsider’ like Switzerland taking over Italy.
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill: The romantic in me can’t stay away from it GEORGIA at a monster 16/1 in normal time and 9s to win the tie. They have looked great on the counter-attack, especially with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and a goalkeeper in inspired form in Giorgi Mamardashvili.
They beat Portugal, they couldn’t beat Spain, right?!
Who will win the Golden Boot?
Golden Boot winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Kylian Mbappé (1) – 6/1
- Harry Kane (1) – 7/1
- Cody Gakpo (2) – 11/1
- Jamal Musiala (2) – 11/1
- Alvaro Morata (1), Niclas Fullkrug (2), *Georges Michautadze (3) – 12/1
- Kai Havertz (1) – 16/1
- Jude Bellingham (1) – 20/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo (0), Romelu Lukaku (0), Bruno Fernandes (1) – 25/1
(x) = Goals scored – full list available here on UEFA.com
* = Golden Boot leader
Joe Townsend: Harry Kane always starts slowly, both in tournaments and historically domestically – people seem to have forgotten the old ‘Kane doesn’t score in August’. He has also been the victim of a dysfunctional team, which will certainly improve from the next game onwards.
England face far weaker opponents in the knockout stages than Kane’s most realistic rivals, whose teams are more likely to be involved in close games, so he would appear to be in a strong position to take advantage of that.
Tom Carnduff: WOUT WEGHORST time. Full explanation in the Euros Notebook here – PLEASE READ IT.
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill: HARRY KANE has scored thirteen goals in major finals, including seven in ten knockout matches and five in fourteen group stage matches. I don’t remember him looking as bad as this, but I’m willing to support him when it matters.
Who will be player of the tournament?
Player of the Tournament odds (via Sky Bet)
- Toni Kroos – 7/1
- Jude Bellingham, Jamal Musiala – 8/1
- Kylian Mbappe – 9/1
- Bruno Fernandes, N’Golo Kanté – 12/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo – 16/1
- Harry Kane, Florian Wirtz, Fabian Ruiz – 20/1
- 25/1 size
Young Player of the Tournament Odds (via Sky Bet)
- Jamal Musiala – 9/4
- Lamine Yamal – 7/2
- Jude Bellingham – 11/2
- Florian Wirtz, Pedri – 6/1
- Nico Williams-10/1
- Xavi Simons, Arda Guler – 22/1
- Nuno Mendes – 25/1
- Jeremy Doku – 28/1
- Cole Palmer, Kobbie Mainoo – 33/1
Joe Townsend: Have supported KOBBIE MAINOO at 20/1 to win the Young Player of the Tournament award for the match, based on the fact that Southgate turned to him in the group stage and realized he was vital to the team, I’m very pleased to apply the same logic and go back with the teenager at 66/1 to win the same prize. Easy.
As for Player of the Tournament, I think it is impossible to bet a player on the other side of the draw at any value. Plus, it’s almost impossible to predict an England player winning the trophy because the Three Lions have been so poor.
TONI KROOS It feels like a missed opportunity considering he was 20/1 before the tournament, given the rumour that he would retire immediately after the Euros on home soil. Should Germany even reach the last four, you would think the legendary midfielder would have a great chance of winning.
Tom Carnduff: Hmmm. What about CODY GAKPO if the Netherlands goes far? There are odds of 100/1. He has been solid throughout the group stages and looks like a completely different player when representing his country.
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill: I can’t look past JUDE BELLINGHAM to win Player of the Tournament for roughly the same price as he was paid before the tournament, given England’s path to the final. He’s been gone since scoring against Serbia, but no player embodies the England spirit more than he does, so any chance the Three Lions have feels like it’s tied to him.
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (27/06/24)
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