Byline:Byline: Author: Dennis Lennox Publication: The Detroit News Article Body: Americans celebrate Independence Day as voters in Britain head to the polls. The elections for 650 seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of parliament, were called by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Unlike American elections, the British system allows the government (generally the majority party) to hold elections on a date of their choosing, giving the ruling party an advantage. However, polls suggest that Sunak’s Conservative Party will suffer a crushing defeat, with the Labor Party under Sir Keir Starmer predicted to win a majority of at least 250 seats. The Conservatives could end up with fewer than 100 seats. This outcome is partly due to the rise of the Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, which is attracting votes from the right and undermining the Conservative vote. The UK’s economic situation has also played a role, with the Conservative government presiding over rising taxes and a declining economy. Sunak has failed to win over voters and lacks political skills. The Conservatives could have prevented a Labor victory by replacing Sunak or forming a pact with Farage, but both options were rejected by the ruling class. As a result, Sir Keir is likely to become Prime Minister after the results are announced. The implications for Americans are uncertain, especially in light of November’s presidential elections. Labor is ideologically closer to the Democrats, but a potential Trump presidency could complicate relations, particularly on issues such as NATO, Israel, and Palestine.
| The Detroit News
Americans celebrate Independence Day as voters in Britain head to the polls.
The elections for 650 seats in the House of Commons — the lower house of parliament — were called by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Unlike American elections, the British system allows the government (generally the majority party) to hold elections on a date of their choosing.
This enormous power normally gives the ruling party an advantage. Emphasis on normal.
If the polls hold, Sunak will lead the Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2010, to its biggest ever defeat. The Labor Party under Sir Keir Starmer, a former prosecutor and self-described socialist, is far ahead, with an average of 41% against 20% for the Conservatives.
Parties are not represented in parliament based on their share of the vote. Instead, Britain uses the same first-past-the-post voting method as America. As a result, Labour will have a majority of at least 250 seats. The Conservatives could end up with fewer than 100.
The campaign and the eventual outcome would be a lot closer if a third party — technically the fifth party — didn’t cannibalize voters on the right. That party is Reform, Nigel Farage’s Trumpesque movement of small-‘c’ conservative populists fed up with 14 years of disappointing Conservative government.
Under five Conservative prime ministers – Sunak, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Lady Theresa May and Lord David Cameron – the UK tax burden is now the highest in 80 years. Economically, things are so bad that without London’s financial services sector, Britain would be the poorest US state, behind only Mississippi.
There is nothing Sunak can do to win. Voters simply won’t listen to him.
Actually, I take that back. Sunak and his party’s ruling class were unwilling to do the two things that could have prevented a huge Labour victory on July 4.
Firstly, Sunak, who was installed after Liz Truss’ short term in office following the fall of Boris Johnson, should have been replaced by a more capable leader. He has no political skills at all.
The only problem? No one wants the job.
Secondly, the Conservatives should have made a pact with Farage. Quirks of the British system mean that the House of Lords is unelected. Its members are mostly peers appointed for life, with a smaller number of hereditary lords and an even smaller number of bishops from the Church of England. The appointees are mostly political henchmen. This means that the Conservatives could have given Farage a title and carte blanche to do whatever he wanted.
But that never happened. Much of the ruling class could not swallow their pride and allow Farage and his band of followers to enter the Conservative tent.
As a result, Sir Keir is set to kiss the King’s hands and become Prime Minister almost immediately after the results are announced. There is no transition here.
What that means for Americans is uncertain, not least because of November’s presidential elections.
Ideologically, Labor is closer to the Democrats, but that too has a caveat that is too long to explain in this column.
But Sir Keir may have to work with Donald J. Trump, should the former president win the election. That will be complicated, especially on issues ranging from NATO and minimum defense spending to Israel and recognition of Palestinian statehood.
Dennis Lennox is a political commentator and public affairs consultant. Follow @dennislennox on X.
